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Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

dc.contributor.authorTrnka, Miroslav
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Song
dc.contributor.authorSemenov, Mikhail A.
dc.contributor.authorOlesen, Jørgen E.
dc.contributor.authorKersebaum, Kurt Christian
dc.contributor.authorRötter, Reimund P.
dc.contributor.authorSemerádová, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorKlem, Karel
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Wei
dc.contributor.authorRuiz-Ramos, Margarita
dc.contributor.authorHlavinka, Petr
dc.contributor.authorMeitner, Jan
dc.contributor.authorBalek, Jan
dc.contributor.authorHavlík, Petr
dc.contributor.authorBüntgen, Ulf
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-14T14:26:23Z
dc.date.available2019-11-14T14:26:23Z
dc.date.issued2019de
dc.relation.ISSN2375-2548de
dc.identifier.urihttp://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gs-1/16671
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.de
dc.language.isoengde
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subjectwater scarcity; wheat-producingde
dc.subject.ddc630
dc.titleMitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areasde
dc.typejournalArticlede
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/sciadv.aau2406
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionde
dc.relation.eISSN2375-2548
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume5de
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue9de
dc.type.subtypejournalArticle
dc.bibliographicCitation.articlenumbereaau2406de
dc.description.statuspeerReviewedde
dc.bibliographicCitation.journalScience Advancesde


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